We can be on track for 3º-4ºC warming by 2100.
Source: IPCC, AR6 WGII, 2022, page 70
This is a graph from the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC), Assessment Report 6.
The IPCC is the internationally accepted authority on climate change. They are part of the UN and they are responsible for reviewing and distributing the research done by the world’s scientists on climate change.
Some climate scientists model climate projection scenarios, which are shown here. These scenarios are based on GDP increase, which to date correlates to increases in greenhouse gas emissions and thus temperature rise.
This graph shows how much the Earth’s surface temperature has changed on average since the beginning of industrialisation, c.1850-1900 (the gray line) and different scenarios for what might happen in the future.
The lower blue scenarios represent the world turning off all emissions today. The higher red ones represent the warming that would happen if we continued the rate of emissions that we release today. At this rate, we could expect somewhere between 3º-4ºC (or more) of warming.
Emissions are rising.
Source: IPCC, AR6 WGIII, 2022
This graph shows the human-induced greenhouse gas emissions trend of the last 30 years. We have steadily increased our emissions in all categories.
As most gases stay in our atmosphere a long time, they will continue to heat our planet for a long time. Therefore it is crucial that we work hard to reduce emissions now.
We need them to lower, drastically.
Source: IPCC, AR6 WGIII, 2022
This graph from Assessment Report 6 shows the reductions needed to limit temperature rise to 1.5ºC and 2ºC. The reductions -shown in blue and purple- indicate a dramatic decrease in emissions are required to keep warming below those thresholds.
Unfortunately, pledges and policies by governments (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) - shown in red- fall very short of what is needed.
What would the world be like with 3º-4ºC warming?
Map image: Just Have a Think, based on a map first published in New Scientist, republished in The Big Think
This map represents what the world would look like by continuing in a business-as-usual manner. The IPCC states that without strengthening our reductions we can expect a median global temperature rise of around 3.2ºC by the end of the century.
This will have a severe permanent impact on our world.
All food growing regions will have shifted to the north and much of the world will become desert and unbearably hot, with extreme food and water scarcity, and with extreme political volatility. For many of us, we could see this in our lifetimes.
At 4ºC, wildfires will become 30% more frequent and will burn 50-70% more land than today. The majority of megacities will experience a day of severe heat stress at least once a year, and half the population-4 billion people-will be affected by water scarcity.
Even 2ºC warming has severe consequences. Many of our major cities will experience catastrophic flooding with nearly 60cm of sea level rise, virtually all coral reefs will be gone and over a third of the global population (2.34 billion people) will be frequently exposed to severe heat waves.
See more
This video explains more about the science behind climate change.
This video delves deeper into what we can expect in coming years and what we can do about it.
But we don’t have to go this route.
We can influence the places we work.
While action has been slow and many governments and businesses have not made enough progress, we do not have to sit back and despair. On the contrary, we have it in our hands to make meaningful decisions for the future.
Each of us is highly influential–especially in our jobs–where we each have the opportunity to make a legitimate difference.
We create the culture of our companies. We can influence what we produce and how we run our business.
The diagram you see here describes the building blocks of a planet-friendly business model that includes people and the planet as well as profit.
Why make a fair business? Because people in poverty (in our own countries and abroad) cannot focus on helping with solutions. Poverty creates political instability and takes attention away from our shared goal of making a healthy and sustainable planet. So we must ensure that our products and services do not contribute to wealth inequality or harm communities.
Why make a gentle business? Because we need to restore balance in our planet by nurturing ecosystems and return over 15% of our global land mass back to being wild areas, which stores carbon and regulates our climate. We need to ensure that our products and services do not disturb habitats, pollute or emit greenhouse gases.
Why make a viable business? Because reducing waste and reusing and recycling materials is better for both the planet and for long-term company profitability.
